Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 2.095565 2.201694 2.315349 2.447068 2.596782 2.763258 2.964723
2025-10-05 2.008826 2.148286 2.303994 2.493387 2.721471 2.992991 3.350417
2025-10-12 1.963807 2.128816 2.319159 2.560027 2.864980 3.251633 3.805639
2025-10-19 1.892251 2.069519 2.278483 2.550217 2.906826 3.381130 4.109608
2025-10-26 1.839825 2.027694 2.253403 2.554194 2.962362 3.531179 4.470681
2025-11-02 1.772493 1.962992 2.194653 2.508342 2.943652 3.570312 4.662557
2025-11-09 1.725853 1.920899 2.161084 2.491829 2.962008 3.663776 4.966966
2025-11-16 1.685995 1.884984 2.132833 2.479458 2.983543 3.762937 5.308789
2025-11-23 1.648619 1.850309 2.104003 2.463650 2.997414 3.850034 5.654287
2025-11-30 1.626950 1.834470 2.098620 2.479390 3.059129 4.025352 6.264649
2025-12-07 1.574718 1.777332 2.035896 2.409961 2.982701 3.946433 6.228807
2025-12-14 1.545140 1.748628 2.010116 2.392170 2.986295 4.013285 6.604700
2025-12-21 1.508240 1.710220 1.971096 2.355059 2.959157 4.025190 6.857221
2025-12-28 1.502232 1.711903 1.986255 2.397766 3.065417 4.312104 8.181183
2026-01-04 1.502660 1.721863 2.012884 2.458929 3.209294 4.713086 10.617737
2026-01-11 1.480295 1.700447 1.994660 2.450096 3.229457 4.847101 12.159292
2026-01-18 1.463224 1.685589 1.985002 2.453833 3.272389 5.045631 14.878234
2026-01-25 1.433005 1.652063 1.947637 2.411940 3.227193 5.015288 15.629377
2026-02-01 1.412407 1.631153 1.927686 2.396859 3.231335 5.114867 18.491200
2026-02-08 1.393955 1.612699 1.910643 2.385553 3.241628 5.234223 23.209622
2026-02-15 1.375436 1.593697 1.892205 2.371076 3.244500 5.334628 30.431129
2026-02-22 1.366215 1.587211 1.891632 2.385543 3.305555 5.623571 87.100325
2026-03-01 1.335061 1.549732 1.844775 2.321769 3.204362 5.391459 51.886471